Poll

Hypothesis: When Rolex supply & demand is normal, all hot models will be available.

By end of Q2 2020
0 (0%)
By end of Q3 2020
2 (16.7%)
By end of Q4 2020
0 (0%)
By end of Q1 2021
1 (8.3%)
Hypothesis not materialize.
9 (75%)

Total Members Voted: 12

Voting closes: August 18, 2021, 11:23:32 AM

Author Topic: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?  (Read 1111 times)

Online Cocas

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When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« on: May 25, 2020, 11:23:32 AM »
Dear MWF bro & sis!

Please come and cast your vote!

Thanks.

« Last Edit: May 25, 2020, 11:53:59 AM by Cocas »

Offline dpkong

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2020, 08:03:42 AM »

How to predict? So long as we're still in the Unobtanium Era, most models will be elusive.

And Rolex will not do anything about it now that the GMT and no-date Sub and even the common Datejust has become coveted pieces when they used to sit on display and only sold if dealers gave discounts.


Online Cocas

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2020, 08:35:22 AM »
Anything can happen...... :laugh:

So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.

One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.

Offline G.MAC

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2020, 08:49:41 AM »
Twenty years or longer? So long as the waitlist is long and grey market dealers have funds, demand is and will continue to be far greater than supply. The more important question is, can you keep waiting? If yes, then the watch obviously is a luxury we can afford to live without. If no, just get it now and earn back your money spent. For me, there are other brands we can enjoy. Life is too short and uncertain to wait and hope.
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Online rnsm1979

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2020, 11:48:44 AM »
i had notice the oversea grey dealer did adjust their price slightly lower nowadays since March
but the local grey dealer still priced their Rollie quiet high

Offline dpkong

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2020, 07:10:34 PM »
Anything can happen...... :laugh:

So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.

One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.

Since most brands have stopped production during the pandemic, stock levels won't be increasing. ROLEX S.A. is obviously not hard up for cash and in no rush to resume production or ramp up the numbers.

The ADs though, may have a hard time forking out rentals and salaries when they have nothing to sell.

Grey dealers who drop prices are those who aren't capital rich and rely mostly on moving inventory quickly. Those who have been in the business a long time don't seem to be dropping prices.

The drop in prices isn't significant enough yet although I cannot deny I'm watching and waiting...


Online Cocas

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2020, 07:13:32 PM »
Anything can happen...... :laugh:

So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.

One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.

Since most brands have stopped production during the pandemic, stock levels won't be increasing. ROLEX S.A. is obviously not hard up for cash and in no rush to resume production or ramp up the numbers.

The ADs though, may have a hard time forking out rentals and salaries when they have nothing to sell.

Grey dealers who drop prices are those who aren't capital rich and rely mostly on moving inventory quickly. Those who have been in the business a long time don't seem to be dropping prices.

The drop in prices isn't significant enough yet although I cannot deny I'm watching and waiting...

Yup, agree. Your points are valid too.

Offline dennis.T

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2020, 10:00:41 AM »

How to predict? So long as we're still in the Unobtanium Era, most models will be elusive.

And Rolex will not do anything about it now that the GMT and no-date Sub and even the common Datejust has become coveted pieces when they used to sit on display and only sold if dealers gave discounts.
brudder, jubilee with fluted bezel datejust in blue or black dial are selling at list price.... and most stupid thing is I bought 2 some more... LOL...

Offline dennis.T

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2020, 10:05:18 AM »
Anything can happen...... :laugh:

So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.

One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.
i used to wear my submariner 16610 as daily beaters. Now all new rolex sport model is too expensive to wear as daily beater... :Blue:

Online Cocas

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2020, 10:05:57 AM »
Anything can happen...... :laugh:

So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.

One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.
i used to wear my submariner 16610 as daily beaters. Now all new rolex sport model is too expensive to wear as daily beater... :Blue:

Now wearing Rolex as daily beater, when it accidentally knock something, you will feel headache. :D

Offline Potential_Highlight

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2020, 04:56:41 AM »
Anything can happen...... :laugh:

So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.

One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.

Since most brands have stopped production during the pandemic, stock levels won't be increasing. ROLEX S.A. is obviously not hard up for cash and in no rush to resume production or ramp up the numbers.

The ADs though, may have a hard time forking out rentals and salaries when they have nothing to sell.

Grey dealers who drop prices are those who aren't capital rich and rely mostly on moving inventory quickly. Those who have been in the business a long time don't seem to be dropping prices.

The drop in prices isn't significant enough yet although I cannot deny I'm watching and waiting...
Who are some of the more reputable grey market dealers in your opinion? If you don't mind sharing

Offline David_cheong

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2020, 11:52:57 AM »
Quote by dpkong; Grey dealers who drop prices are those who aren't capital rich and rely mostly on moving inventory quickly. Those who have been in the business a long time don't seem to be dropping prices.

Brother dpkong, I salute your insight on the above quote.

There are grey dealers with lower than usual selling prices. And are willingly to offset their stocks with minimum turn over. Potential buyers should take advantages of these scenarios to fulfill their wishful list.. Stocks inventory and its prices may have soften as the current pandemic rages on. Current situations may not prolonged or repeated once the situation improved.

dc
I am almost a recovered watchaholic, but last checked shows only 70% recovered. How?

Offline Adzrienn

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2020, 10:07:47 PM »
Is it me or the price of rolex is coming back up? Afew watches i see going bck up like the daytona

Offline G.MAC

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2020, 05:40:16 AM »
You are right. Especially the 116500 in white.
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Online aramis

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2020, 11:36:17 AM »
Maybe due to the covid-19 situation is perceived as recovering and less desperate sellers?

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Offline oldisgold

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #15 on: June 13, 2020, 04:48:20 PM »
Anything can happen......

So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.

One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.
i used to wear my submariner 16610 as daily beaters. Now all new rolex sport model is too expensive to wear as daily beater... :Blue:

Now wearing Rolex as daily beater, when it accidentally knock something, you will feel headache. :D
My thoughts exactly. I've locked up my Rolex and only wear Orient and G-Shock

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Offline oldisgold

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #16 on: June 13, 2020, 04:49:18 PM »
I'm thinking if 16610 drops to below RM20k, I'll pick up another one

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Offline Adzrienn

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #17 on: June 13, 2020, 07:12:00 PM »
20k sounds low. But hey i guess we will never know one day demand for watches might stop. Or everyone just gave up with rolex

Offline dpkong

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2020, 09:02:40 PM »
I'm thinking if 16610 drops to below RM20k, I'll pick up another one

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you sound like me.. I've been waiting for 999 gold to reach RM140/g before getting that anchor chain bracelet...

 :Laughing_on_floor:

Offline dpkong

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #19 on: June 17, 2020, 07:07:44 PM »
This guy has another opinion though...

https://usa.watchpro.com/corders-column-rolex-drought-will-ease-within-two-years/


But let's have a look at some numbers..

- World population now is 7.8billion or 7,800,000,000 people
- let's say 70% are above the age of 18 or 21 so that gives 5,460,000,000 people
- let's say half of that is male and assume female don't buy sports Rolex so we have 2,730,000,000 people
- let's assume that 40% of that is middle class that can afford a Rolex sports watch and that's 1,092,000,000 people


So the guess is that Rolex makes about 800,000 watches per year. Let's assume that half of it is in steel (400,000) and another half of it are Datejusts and ladies steel watches which leaves us with 200,000 sports Rolex watches.

So there are 1,092,000,000 people looking to buy 200,000 watches... which means there are 5,460 people looking to buy one watch...

Do you think supply and demand will normalize?


Offline G.MAC

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #20 on: June 17, 2020, 07:22:38 PM »
This guy has another opinion though...

https://usa.watchpro.com/corders-column-rolex-drought-will-ease-within-two-years/


But let's have a look at some numbers..

- World population now is 7.8billion or 7,800,000,000 people
- let's say 70% are above the age of 18 or 21 so that gives 5,460,000,000 people
- let's say half of that is male and assume female don't buy sports Rolex so we have 2,730,000,000 people
- let's assume that 40% of that is middle class that can afford a Rolex sports watch and that's 1,092,000,000 people


So the guess is that Rolex makes about 800,000 watches per year. Let's assume that half of it is in steel (400,000) and another half of it are Datejusts and ladies steel watches which leaves us with 200,000 sports Rolex watches.

So there are 1,092,000,000 people looking to buy 200,000 watches... which means there are 5,460 people looking to buy one watch...

Do you think supply and demand will normalize?

Well said.


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Online Cocas

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #21 on: June 17, 2020, 08:51:50 PM »
This guy has another opinion though...

https://usa.watchpro.com/corders-column-rolex-drought-will-ease-within-two-years/


But let's have a look at some numbers..

- World population now is 7.8billion or 7,800,000,000 people
- let's say 70% are above the age of 18 or 21 so that gives 5,460,000,000 people
- let's say half of that is male and assume female don't buy sports Rolex so we have 2,730,000,000 people
- let's assume that 40% of that is middle class that can afford a Rolex sports watch and that's 1,092,000,000 people


So the guess is that Rolex makes about 800,000 watches per year. Let's assume that half of it is in steel (400,000) and another half of it are Datejusts and ladies steel watches which leaves us with 200,000 sports Rolex watches.

So there are 1,092,000,000 people looking to buy 200,000 watches... which means there are 5,460 people looking to buy one watch...

Do you think supply and demand will normalize?

When Covid19 hits, 90% of 1,092,000,000 ppl cashflow affected and postponed to buy Rolex.

Then left only 109,200,000 chasing 200,000 SS Rolex.

S'pore stopped its Changi airport T5 project for 2 years, meaning world wide economy will stand still for at least 2 yrs.

200,000 X 2 yrs = 400,000 pieces being chased by 109200000.
In short, about 273 people chasing for 1 Rolex. Very high chance to own Rolex eh.



 :Jumping:
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 08:54:31 PM by Cocas »

Offline heart_killer39

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Re: When will Rolex supply & demand curve normalize?
« Reply #22 on: Today at 11:12:19 AM »
This guy has another opinion though...

https://usa.watchpro.com/corders-column-rolex-drought-will-ease-within-two-years/


But let's have a look at some numbers..

- World population now is 7.8billion or 7,800,000,000 people
- let's say 70% are above the age of 18 or 21 so that gives 5,460,000,000 people
- let's say half of that is male and assume female don't buy sports Rolex so we have 2,730,000,000 people
- let's assume that 40% of that is middle class that can afford a Rolex sports watch and that's 1,092,000,000 people


So the guess is that Rolex makes about 800,000 watches per year. Let's assume that half of it is in steel (400,000) and another half of it are Datejusts and ladies steel watches which leaves us with 200,000 sports Rolex watches.

So there are 1,092,000,000 people looking to buy 200,000 watches... which means there are 5,460 people looking to buy one watch...

Do you think supply and demand will normalize?

One could definitely criticize the assumptions that you made