Prediction - swiss/german watches in next 5 years.

[Plankton-IkanBilis]

- Swatch Group not selling their movement to other companies...2013, I think.
- Uncertainty in the world economy...especialy in Euro.
- China and India...the rise of the middle class (some may not agree...what middle class? ).
- Possible mergers and aqcuistions...or some may just be left behind, disappear...slow or natural death possibly?
- Compromise on design and principles...sporty and larger watches...succumb to the trend?

So what is your take on the future of swiss/german watches ( did not include the Japanese coz I personally think they will survive and even thrive).

Brands like: (my personal take)

Patek Philippe - a different kettle of fish from the rest...unscathed!

Lange - here to stay, an alternative to PP possibly (not necessarilly better or a compromise)

Audemars Piguet - will be banging on the ROO...lets hope they don't go overboard.

JLC, Vacheron C, - I do see the direction of JLC...but not Vacheron though.

Breguet, Blancpain - I sometimes wonder how many watches they sell...just continue to exist as Swatch's trophy names?

Glasshutte Original -

Ricard Mille, Franck Muller -

Rolex -

Panerai -

Omega -

IWC -

Longines, Tissot - yep they will be around.

Others -  and the list goes on...some may not see the light of day soon?


I have left out many names...also did not comment on certain names above...just to start the ball rolling. Have fun in giving comments and views...

[Godzillaz]

Sound like a analyst project for buying stocks. LOL

My personal take would be if some of the watch brand do get bought will the new shareholder continue to support their previous watch with old movement or just let it die a slow death.

Company like IWC, AP, JLC and even PP will service their old watch disregard what age it is in. I fear some other might not. While the supply of SWATCH AG's ebauche to non Swatch AG might be a thing of the past (which I don't think it will happen). ETA makes millions of movement a month. I doubt SWATCH AG sold that many watch in its own group of brands. Simple logic tells me it is just a move to control supply to demand price increase.

On top of that there are other company supplying similar movement and are more than happy to take the role of ETA. Couple with the expired patent and design of some of those ETA movement. This mean I don't need to go Swatch AG to get a Swatch AG's movement. While many would argue the quality of these ETA derived movement but most company do not just put a raw movement into a case fit a dial with its own name and call it a day. Those that are will of course see themselves not having a free ride anymore.

There aren't that many free rider to begin with and when they disappear i suspect most of us won't notice. All Swatch AG did is to make sure we will continue to pay ever rising price for our watch regardless of they are branded or not.       

Regard

- Swatch Group not selling their movement to other companies...2013, I think.
- Uncertainty in the world economy...especialy in Euro.
- China and India...the rise of the middle class (some may not agree...what middle class? ).
- Possible mergers and aqcuistions...or some may just be left behind, disappear...slow or natural death possibly?
- Compromise on design and principles...sporty and larger watches...succumb to the trend?

So what is your take on the future of swiss/german watches ( did not include the Japanese coz I personally think they will survive and even thrive).

Brands like: (my personal take)

Patek Philippe - a different kettle of fish from the rest...unscathed!

Lange - here to stay, an alternative to PP possibly (not necessarilly better or a compromise)

Audemars Piguet - will be banging on the ROO...lets hope they don't go overboard.

JLC, Vacheron C, - I do see the direction of JLC...but not Vacheron though.

Breguet, Blancpain - I sometimes wonder how many watches they sell...just continue to exist as Swatch's trophy names?

Glasshutte Original -

Ricard Mille, Franck Muller -

Rolex -

Panerai -

Omega -

IWC -

Longines, Tissot - yep they will be around.

Others -  and the list goes on...some may not see the light of day soon?


I have left out many names...also did not comment on certain names above...just to start the ball rolling. Have fun in giving comments and views...

[rusminag]

Based on inflation and gold price, Rolex watches price will be 30% to 50% or even higher than current retail price...

[Calibr]

Stick with Rolex.. proven track records in holding its value inspite of economic conditions over the years. Value of Panerai appears to be very much marketing driven, after the brand was bought by the Richemont (LV) Group.. and the strength of the Italian economy (Panerai is made in Florence) is not predictable in the next 5 years.

[chrisyen]

Swatch will still supply movement
Just not the ebauche movement

They will modify, decorate.... According to spec

They just do not want ppl make more money by using their base movement!

There are clones already available in the market...
So, I don't see a problem for other brand...

Human will find our way out...

If u r looking at group who hold the brand then not so much if issue...

Rolex is Rolex... I will b surprised is they go down... U worry Tudor will hv movement problem?

Richemont hv jlc n vc in the group... All their brand is switching to in house... Including famous panerai Cartier iwc... Mont Blanc premium line using Minerva factory...

Lvmh group hv zenith in the group

Sowind group

N others small brand like damasko, federique constant... Stowa acquired durowe...
So even small scale hv their manufacture facilities ready...

Time has been given for the past few yrs... Every1 is ready...

Ps - panerai is swiss made

[Calibr]

Ps - panerai is swiss made

Thanks for the correction. Panerai started making its watches in Switzerland in 2002, and its expanded facilities would kick in in 2013:

Taken fron Chronometryx website: http://www.chronometryx.com/en/brands/11/

1993

The first civilian collection by Officine Panerai: three limited edition models inspired by those created for Second World War military operations but made according to the highest modern technical standards.

1997

Officine Panerai is acquired by the Richemont Group (then Vendôme), which launches the brand on the international market the following year.

2002

Opening of the Officine Panerai Manufacture in Neuchâtel, Switzerland.

2005

International launch of the first Panerai movement, P.2002: a hand-wound calibre with GMT function and a 8-day power reserve, inspired by the Angelus movement of the 1940s.

2007

Officine Panerai presents three new calibres entirely conceived and developed in-house: P.2003, P.2004 and P.2005 with an innovative tourbillon escapement.

Thanks

[Primus]

I'm very interested to know what do you experts see for the future of Richard Mille company and their watches.

I must admit im struggling to understand this brand. Very new company since 2001, but prices are all so extravagant. Wonder if they have staying power

[JOS2012]

No expert but honestly I think RM makes very good watches.
They use very hi-tech esoteric materials that resist physical damage. Their materials are very often used in hi stress environments like aero-space,etc
Their movements are outsourced to people like Christophe Claret, Renaud et Papi, etc for very specific complications.
Their requirements of complications look into even details like optimal torque or constant force for the barrels unwinding as mainsprings are not isochronous as they wind down. Even the winding rotors can be programmed for active or passive winding depending on the individuals' lifestyle...
They sponsor hi visibility personalities like Bubba Watson for golf, Felipe Massa for F1, Rafael Nadal.....tennis,
 actually RM's personality is quite similar to those he sponsors.. typical alpha males...
 
Very hi-tech but obviously their starting 6 figure prices also helps maintain Mr RM's extravagant lifestyle of super yachts, etc..
If I had a super rich dad who is a Who's Who by Forbes, I'd get one in a wink...

I'm very interested to know what do you experts see for the future of Richard Mille company and their watches.

I must admit im struggling to understand this brand. Very new company since 2001, but prices are all so extravagant. Wonder if they have staying power