Post by: Cocas on May 25, 2020, 11:23:32 AM
Please come and cast your vote!
Thanks.
(https://www.malaysiawatchforum.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=22280.0;attach=13500)
Post by: dpkong on May 27, 2020, 08:03:42 AM
How to predict? So long as we're still in the Unobtanium Era, most models will be elusive.
And Rolex will not do anything about it now that the GMT and no-date Sub and even the common Datejust has become coveted pieces when they used to sit on display and only sold if dealers gave discounts.
Post by: Cocas on May 27, 2020, 08:35:22 AM
So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.
One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.
Post by: G.MAC on May 27, 2020, 08:49:41 AM
Post by: rnsm1979 on May 27, 2020, 11:48:44 AM
but the local grey dealer still priced their Rollie quiet high
Post by: dpkong on May 27, 2020, 07:10:34 PM
Anything can happen...... :laugh:
So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.
One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.
Since most brands have stopped production during the pandemic, stock levels won't be increasing. ROLEX S.A. is obviously not hard up for cash and in no rush to resume production or ramp up the numbers.
The ADs though, may have a hard time forking out rentals and salaries when they have nothing to sell.
Grey dealers who drop prices are those who aren't capital rich and rely mostly on moving inventory quickly. Those who have been in the business a long time don't seem to be dropping prices.
The drop in prices isn't significant enough yet although I cannot deny I'm watching and waiting...
Post by: Cocas on May 27, 2020, 07:13:32 PM
Anything can happen...... :laugh:
So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.
One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.
Since most brands have stopped production during the pandemic, stock levels won't be increasing. ROLEX S.A. is obviously not hard up for cash and in no rush to resume production or ramp up the numbers.
The ADs though, may have a hard time forking out rentals and salaries when they have nothing to sell.
Grey dealers who drop prices are those who aren't capital rich and rely mostly on moving inventory quickly. Those who have been in the business a long time don't seem to be dropping prices.
The drop in prices isn't significant enough yet although I cannot deny I'm watching and waiting...
Yup, agree. Your points are valid too.
Post by: dennis.T on May 28, 2020, 10:00:41 AM
brudder, jubilee with fluted bezel datejust in blue or black dial are selling at list price.... and most stupid thing is I bought 2 some more... LOL...
How to predict? So long as we're still in the Unobtanium Era, most models will be elusive.
And Rolex will not do anything about it now that the GMT and no-date Sub and even the common Datejust has become coveted pieces when they used to sit on display and only sold if dealers gave discounts.
Post by: dennis.T on May 28, 2020, 10:05:18 AM
Anything can happen...... :laugh:i used to wear my submariner 16610 as daily beaters. Now all new rolex sport model is too expensive to wear as daily beater... :Blue:
So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.
One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.
Post by: Cocas on May 30, 2020, 10:05:57 AM
Anything can happen...... :laugh:i used to wear my submariner 16610 as daily beaters. Now all new rolex sport model is too expensive to wear as daily beater... :Blue:
So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.
One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.
Now wearing Rolex as daily beater, when it accidentally knock something, you will feel headache. :D
Post by: Potential_Highlight on June 11, 2020, 04:56:41 AM
Who are some of the more reputable grey market dealers in your opinion? If you don't mind sharingAnything can happen...... :laugh:
So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.
One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.
Since most brands have stopped production during the pandemic, stock levels won't be increasing. ROLEX S.A. is obviously not hard up for cash and in no rush to resume production or ramp up the numbers.
The ADs though, may have a hard time forking out rentals and salaries when they have nothing to sell.
Grey dealers who drop prices are those who aren't capital rich and rely mostly on moving inventory quickly. Those who have been in the business a long time don't seem to be dropping prices.
The drop in prices isn't significant enough yet although I cannot deny I'm watching and waiting...
Post by: David_cheong on June 11, 2020, 11:52:57 AM
Brother dpkong, I salute your insight on the above quote.
There are grey dealers with lower than usual selling prices. And are willingly to offset their stocks with minimum turn over. Potential buyers should take advantages of these scenarios to fulfill their wishful list.. Stocks inventory and its prices may have soften as the current pandemic rages on. Current situations may not prolonged or repeated once the situation improved.
dc
Post by: Adzrienn on June 12, 2020, 10:07:47 PM
Post by: G.MAC on June 13, 2020, 05:40:16 AM
Post by: aramis on June 13, 2020, 11:36:17 AM
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Post by: oldisgold on June 13, 2020, 04:48:20 PM
My thoughts exactly. I've locked up my Rolex and only wear Orient and G-ShockAnything can happen......i used to wear my submariner 16610 as daily beaters. Now all new rolex sport model is too expensive to wear as daily beater... :Blue:
So far pre-owned pieces supply are getting more, and their prices are reduced.
One day when supply is more than demand, then the hypothesis should come true.
Now wearing Rolex as daily beater, when it accidentally knock something, you will feel headache. :D
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Post by: oldisgold on June 13, 2020, 04:49:18 PM
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Post by: Adzrienn on June 13, 2020, 07:12:00 PM
Post by: dpkong on June 16, 2020, 09:02:40 PM
I'm thinking if 16610 drops to below RM20k, I'll pick up another one
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you sound like me.. I've been waiting for 999 gold to reach RM140/g before getting that anchor chain bracelet...
:Laughing_on_floor:
Post by: dpkong on June 17, 2020, 07:07:44 PM
https://usa.watchpro.com/corders-column-rolex-drought-will-ease-within-two-years/
But let's have a look at some numbers..
- World population now is 7.8billion or 7,800,000,000 people
- let's say 70% are above the age of 18 or 21 so that gives 5,460,000,000 people
- let's say half of that is male and assume female don't buy sports Rolex so we have 2,730,000,000 people
- let's assume that 40% of that is middle class that can afford a Rolex sports watch and that's 1,092,000,000 people
So the guess is that Rolex makes about 800,000 watches per year. Let's assume that half of it is in steel (400,000) and another half of it are Datejusts and ladies steel watches which leaves us with 200,000 sports Rolex watches.
So there are 1,092,000,000 people looking to buy 200,000 watches... which means there are 5,460 people looking to buy one watch...
Do you think supply and demand will normalize?
Post by: G.MAC on June 17, 2020, 07:22:38 PM
This guy has another opinion though...
https://usa.watchpro.com/corders-column-rolex-drought-will-ease-within-two-years/
But let's have a look at some numbers..
- World population now is 7.8billion or 7,800,000,000 people
- let's say 70% are above the age of 18 or 21 so that gives 5,460,000,000 people
- let's say half of that is male and assume female don't buy sports Rolex so we have 2,730,000,000 people
- let's assume that 40% of that is middle class that can afford a Rolex sports watch and that's 1,092,000,000 people
So the guess is that Rolex makes about 800,000 watches per year. Let's assume that half of it is in steel (400,000) and another half of it are Datejusts and ladies steel watches which leaves us with 200,000 sports Rolex watches.
So there are 1,092,000,000 people looking to buy 200,000 watches... which means there are 5,460 people looking to buy one watch...
Do you think supply and demand will normalize?
Well said.
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Post by: Cocas on June 17, 2020, 08:51:50 PM
This guy has another opinion though...
https://usa.watchpro.com/corders-column-rolex-drought-will-ease-within-two-years/
But let's have a look at some numbers..
- World population now is 7.8billion or 7,800,000,000 people
- let's say 70% are above the age of 18 or 21 so that gives 5,460,000,000 people
- let's say half of that is male and assume female don't buy sports Rolex so we have 2,730,000,000 people
- let's assume that 40% of that is middle class that can afford a Rolex sports watch and that's 1,092,000,000 people
So the guess is that Rolex makes about 800,000 watches per year. Let's assume that half of it is in steel (400,000) and another half of it are Datejusts and ladies steel watches which leaves us with 200,000 sports Rolex watches.
So there are 1,092,000,000 people looking to buy 200,000 watches... which means there are 5,460 people looking to buy one watch...
Do you think supply and demand will normalize?
When Covid19 hits, 90% of 1,092,000,000 ppl cashflow affected and postponed to buy Rolex.
Then left only 109,200,000 chasing 200,000 SS Rolex.
S'pore stopped its Changi airport T5 project for 2 years, meaning world wide economy will stand still for at least 2 yrs.
200,000 X 2 yrs = 400,000 pieces being chased by 109200000.
In short, about 273 people chasing for 1 Rolex. Very high chance to own Rolex eh.
:Jumping:
Post by: heart_killer39 on July 15, 2020, 11:12:19 AM
This guy has another opinion though...
https://usa.watchpro.com/corders-column-rolex-drought-will-ease-within-two-years/
But let's have a look at some numbers..
- World population now is 7.8billion or 7,800,000,000 people
- let's say 70% are above the age of 18 or 21 so that gives 5,460,000,000 people
- let's say half of that is male and assume female don't buy sports Rolex so we have 2,730,000,000 people
- let's assume that 40% of that is middle class that can afford a Rolex sports watch and that's 1,092,000,000 people
So the guess is that Rolex makes about 800,000 watches per year. Let's assume that half of it is in steel (400,000) and another half of it are Datejusts and ladies steel watches which leaves us with 200,000 sports Rolex watches.
So there are 1,092,000,000 people looking to buy 200,000 watches... which means there are 5,460 people looking to buy one watch...
Do you think supply and demand will normalize?
One could definitely criticize the assumptions that you made
Post by: dpkong on July 15, 2020, 08:43:37 PM
This guy has another opinion though...
https://usa.watchpro.com/corders-column-rolex-drought-will-ease-within-two-years/
But let's have a look at some numbers..
- World population now is 7.8billion or 7,800,000,000 people
- let's say 70% are above the age of 18 or 21 so that gives 5,460,000,000 people
- let's say half of that is male and assume female don't buy sports Rolex so we have 2,730,000,000 people
- let's assume that 40% of that is middle class that can afford a Rolex sports watch and that's 1,092,000,000 people
So the guess is that Rolex makes about 800,000 watches per year. Let's assume that half of it is in steel (400,000) and another half of it are Datejusts and ladies steel watches which leaves us with 200,000 sports Rolex watches.
So there are 1,092,000,000 people looking to buy 200,000 watches... which means there are 5,460 people looking to buy one watch...
Do you think supply and demand will normalize?
One could definitely criticize the assumptions that you made
Are you critical of the numbers? Or my assumptions?
Regardless, you can see that demand far exceed supplies and it will not be resolved anytime soon.
Post by: Potential_Highlight on July 16, 2020, 01:27:47 PM
First of all, your %'s are a little arbitraryThis guy has another opinion though...
https://usa.watchpro.com/corders-column-rolex-drought-will-ease-within-two-years/
But let's have a look at some numbers..
- World population now is 7.8billion or 7,800,000,000 people
- let's say 70% are above the age of 18 or 21 so that gives 5,460,000,000 people
- let's say half of that is male and assume female don't buy sports Rolex so we have 2,730,000,000 people
- let's assume that 40% of that is middle class that can afford a Rolex sports watch and that's 1,092,000,000 people
So the guess is that Rolex makes about 800,000 watches per year. Let's assume that half of it is in steel (400,000) and another half of it are Datejusts and ladies steel watches which leaves us with 200,000 sports Rolex watches.
So there are 1,092,000,000 people looking to buy 200,000 watches... which means there are 5,460 people looking to buy one watch...
Do you think supply and demand will normalize?
One could definitely criticize the assumptions that you made
Are you critical of the numbers? Or my assumptions?
Regardless, you can see that demand far exceed supplies and it will not be resolved anytime soon.
Secondly, you're assuming every single middle class male above the age 18/21 on the globe wants to buy a Rolex (even a bedridden 90 year old about to die?)
And finally, in my experience, 99% of the population don't care about watches, middle class or not. And even among the 1% who are into watches, not everyone is looking to buy a Rolex
But yes, you are right that the whole thing about Rolex is that demand far outstrips supply; that is literally the entire marketing strategy of Rolex, to make one less Rolex than there are the total number of available buyers
Post by: Cocas on July 25, 2020, 11:16:35 AM
Post by: samuelk on July 25, 2020, 12:54:18 PM
Post by: dpkong on July 25, 2020, 01:07:13 PM
Later let's stroll around those AD shops, see what is the Rolex market now. ;D
I'm sure a lot of us here love pictures. Please post display drawers and location as well..
:Cheers:
Post by: oldisgold on July 29, 2020, 08:15:26 AM
If it's still empty display cases then tak payah laLater let's stroll around those AD shops, see what is the Rolex market now. ;D
I'm sure a lot of us here love pictures. Please post display drawers and location as well..
:Cheers:
Hahaha
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