Author Topic: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??  (Read 8067 times)

Offline ray6969

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Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« on: March 01, 2022, 06:01:57 PM »
YouTube on Eric watch

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FCFCQXnkNXI&t=244s

Price elasticity, product scarcity, exclusivity will drive certain products/ markets to unique levels. Prices are being driven by a global market , that global resellers will see, so it’s be interesting to see the data on “trading” / sales data and where these pieces are going (globally). Then we’d know.

I think that as long as there are unique products that people will not easily substitute something else with , and we are in high global demand , we’ll see prices remain strong. I mean, if your a Daytona guy, guess what, an AP may never do it for you...microeconomics is demand and supply curve..

I guess we need to wait to see if we are seeing hype or real supply/demand. I think it’s the latter because I really don’t see hype out there , rather genuine, broad interest backed by a strong economy, and people wanting what they want. To me hype is a trend, and timepieces have long been appreciated so is it a trend...I dont think so, maybe just more people getting into the game due to great content on modern channels (Youtube and other social platforms)

Two things I think are relevant to the spike, COVID & rise in wealth in general. As the world re-opens, that could shift focus of spend back to other things.

Point being if i want a certain but hard to get the timepieces (for whatever reason) and there’s not a suitable substitute (sometime others brand but it's about horological aspect) , would i just ditch the watch of my dreams or find a way to get it, whether it be a Rolex. Kinda explains the insanity behind the rise on any "hot watch" being hype. Just my 2 cents, and sorry for the long comment, but it’s not a simple dynamic that is playing out.

It's been a wild ride these past 2 years, I think people are starting to rethink their investment strategy with watches, and look for real horological value and rarity more than a watch that is readily available but for x3-x4 MSRP. I think we should see a correction soon, as this price action is not sustainable.

Any comment all bros and sifu, feel free to comment and share ideas.

Sent from my CPH1715 using Tapatalk


Offline rnsm1979

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2022, 08:45:35 AM »
just my 2 cent, as long as WE are not blindly follow the trend and buying it at *3 *4 of the retail price, we should be good

for those flipper that bought it at those inflated price, be ready to get BURN once the market re-adjust to reality, hopefully this happen quickly

Offline Squirty

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2022, 10:24:18 AM »
i agree, it depends on the piece you are holding. IMO pieces like the daydates have been long considered a strong investment piece. Slow and steady rise. i would have never imagined that a SS panda daytona would be trading close to 300k rm. kinda ridiculous imo.

Offline ray6969

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2022, 01:00:40 PM »
i agree, it depends on the piece you are holding. IMO pieces like the daydates have been long considered a strong investment piece. Slow and steady rise. i would have never imagined that a SS panda daytona would be trading close to 300k rm. kinda ridiculous imo.

I agreed with you mate..i agreed that SS Panda Daytona is beauty , legendary craftsmanship, a reliable tool, but it not a RM 300,000.00!!!....with that money, better i bought a second hand house at suburban place at KL (come with amenities/LRT) and become a landlord.. :Laughing_on_floor: :D

Offline dpkong

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2022, 08:10:55 AM »
I wonder if the people who bought them last year at 150k have actually sold them at 300k?

Always good to cash in when you can before the pyramid topples....

Offline bulletnos

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2022, 09:21:28 AM »
I wonder if the people who bought them last year at 150k have actually sold them at 300k?

Always good to cash in when you can before the pyramid topples....

I think these individuals would have traded in to a grey dealer perhaps at RM250k…still pocket RM100k. And the cycle carries on. Grey dealers buy from each other too at a slight margin if they cant move it, leading the market to think that it traded at that price, and next thing u know another dealer has it - until an unsuspecting shark buys it up. At least that’s what I think la.

Offline dpkong

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2022, 09:40:54 AM »

but just going by the thread title, it's just turbulence and maybe corrections but should not be any crash unless we run out of people with too much money and nothing to spend on...

however, on the regular R forums, a lot of people are getting calls for their SS Daytona so wonder if that will create a dent in the scarcity hype...


Offline rnsm1979

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2022, 12:05:42 PM »
10 years back when I started with watch collecting is all about passion, but nowadays the first thing people ask when buying a watch is that a good investment...

I don't meant that is bad but it just started at the wrong conception where watch collecting is all about

Offline W3ll

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2022, 12:08:02 PM »
Those who follow the grey market actions long enough will know recently they been pushing out lots of their stocks for sale. And some even have slight price adjustment. Is up to all the “investors” to interpret what this signify

Offline ray6969

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #9 on: March 08, 2022, 01:14:56 PM »

but just going by the thread title, it's just turbulence and maybe corrections but should not be any crash unless we run out of people with too much money and nothing to spend on...

however, on the regular R forums, a lot of people are getting calls for their SS Daytona so wonder if that will create a dent in the scarcity hype...

Congratulation on a "lot of people" that are getting call from Authorised Dealer (AD) for their SS Daytona....that we call its a real proper "flexing" which is get it from MSRP (retail), rather that from professional flipper/ grey market...


Offline kram45

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2022, 11:33:06 AM »
I don’t see the Rolex market crashing any time soon. I know people that have put their names down with ADs, in order to get the Rolex they want. It’s totally unreal.

Offline bulletnos

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2022, 04:27:00 PM »

but just going by the thread title, it's just turbulence and maybe corrections but should not be any crash unless we run out of people with too much money and nothing to spend on...

however, on the regular R forums, a lot of people are getting calls for their SS Daytona so wonder if that will create a dent in the scarcity hype...

Congratulation on a "lot of people" that are getting call from Authorised Dealer (AD) for their SS Daytona....that we call its a real proper "flexing" which is get it from MSRP (retail), rather that from professional flipper/ grey market...

Perhaps what many dont see is how much dough they've dropped in those AD's to get these pieces... :HammerHead:

Offline hmkpwatches

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2022, 06:16:43 PM »
i think with recent investments like crypto and nfts, alot more people have more spending moneys and therefore reward themselves by buying watches. that in turn, becomes an investment and people see alot of growth in the industry. then when other investment markets like stocks and crypto drops, then they pull out and then look to invest in other rising investment opportunities like watches. i do however hope the prices stabilize a little cause recent price hikes have been insane and not sustainable.

Offline W3ll

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #13 on: March 12, 2022, 07:29:47 AM »
Grey prices has been dropping week after week. No more investors to fuel these crazy prices

Offline G.MAC

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #14 on: March 12, 2022, 08:15:06 AM »
I would not call it a crash. More like the price is stabilizing.
Your ONLY job in this world is to make sure that you are happy

Offline Cocas

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2022, 12:17:51 PM »
watch market is a super weird market.

NFT, cryptocurrency , shares, property markets will crash but an artistic luxury watch market will never crash.

because it's an art , not science!


Offline W3ll

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #16 on: March 12, 2022, 12:34:25 PM »
watch market is a super weird market.

NFT, cryptocurrency , shares, property markets will crash but an artistic luxury watch market will never crash.

because it's an art , not science!

People these days are treating the watches as investment rather than art or enjoyment piece, and that's what is going to cause a crash, when the hype up pricing buyers begin to piss their pants when they no longer can sell for higher.

Offline pleasuresaurus

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2022, 09:58:39 AM »
watch market is a super weird market.

NFT, cryptocurrency , shares, property markets will crash but an artistic luxury watch market will never crash.

because it's an art , not science!

People these days are treating the watches as investment rather than art or enjoyment piece, and that's what is going to cause a crash, when the hype up pricing buyers begin to piss their pants when they no longer can sell for higher.


Offline bulletnos

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2022, 02:36:17 PM »
Can already start to see some Rolex prices dropping in the secondary/grey market… now we wait…

Offline ray6969

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #19 on: March 14, 2022, 07:52:38 AM »

but just going by the thread title, it's just turbulence and maybe corrections but should not be any crash unless we run out of people with too much money and nothing to spend on...

however, on the regular R forums, a lot of people are getting calls for their SS Daytona so wonder if that will create a dent in the scarcity hype...

Congratulation on a "lot of people" that are getting call from Authorised Dealer (AD) for their SS Daytona....that we call its a real proper "flexing" which is get it from MSRP (retail), rather that from professional flipper/ grey market...

Perhaps what many dont see is how much dough they've dropped in those AD's to get these pieces... :HammerHead:

I understand, sometime and minority of "they've" (don't see is how much dough they've dropped in those AD's to get these pieces) has become a professional flipper, but that is a reality.

I love its,i hope now prices is stabilising and corrections. Look for real horological value and rarity, I think we should see a correction soon, as this price action is not sustainable.

In 2011 , when i start on horology watch journey...its not about values but love of timepieces and craftsmanship horological.

Offline swleong

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #20 on: March 14, 2022, 08:02:32 AM »
Can already start to see some Rolex prices dropping in the secondary/grey market… now we wait…

really? I just saw a post of white dial ceramic Daytona selling for RM240k few days ago? It was in sub RM200k few weeks ago.

Offline G.MAC

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #21 on: March 14, 2022, 08:26:25 AM »
Can already start to see some Rolex prices dropping in the secondary/grey market… now we wait…

really? I just saw a post of white dial ceramic Daytona selling for RM240k few days ago? It was in sub RM200k few weeks ago.
The steel Daytona always the last to be adjusted. Hot since 1988.
Your ONLY job in this world is to make sure that you are happy

Offline W3ll

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2022, 10:14:26 AM »
Can already start to see some Rolex prices dropping in the secondary/grey market… now we wait…

really? I just saw a post of white dial ceramic Daytona selling for RM240k few days ago? It was in sub RM200k few weeks ago.

The grey can put whatever price they like, reality is no people is buying it, it went from RM268k down to 230k, in fact i think i even saw RM218k.. and yet it is still unsold.

Offline ray6969

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2022, 10:36:27 AM »
Can already start to see some Rolex prices dropping in the secondary/grey market… now we wait…

really? I just saw a post of white dial ceramic Daytona selling for RM240k few days ago? It was in sub RM200k few weeks ago.

wow!!! i don't know the price of this SUBMARINER is RM 200,000.00!!!! , for sure this piece is rare and legendary ??? nice siri number??? tropical dial??? COMEX???? RED SUBMARINER DIAL?? PATINA?? JAMES BOND 50s?? haha  :Laughing_on_floor:
« Last Edit: March 14, 2022, 10:39:41 AM by ray6969 »

Offline Squirty

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Re: Luxury watch market CRASH or TURBULENCE!??
« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2022, 11:36:30 AM »
Grey prices has been dropping week after week. No more investors to fuel these crazy prices

yup seen this quite clearly. the prices of the SS daytonas and 5167a has been droppnig quite significantly. around 15-20% off their highs.